Questions that need to be asked?

Well, it seems that Senator Clinton pulled the victory that she needed to pull. The margin is close to 10 points and it is enough for her to keep on going and to even, i predict, energize her fund raising (i just heard on CNN that she raised about $2.5 million on her website, this still has to be confirmed).

As i wrote a couple of days ago, what does this victory of Senator Clinton mean? Or what does this defeat of Senator Obama mean?

There are several questions that need to be asked calmly and answered in the most honest and objective way.

This is the primary objective of this short diary. I would like to generate an honest and open debate and conversation between concerned and responsible democrats and progressives. Please, for the love of god, refrain from insults and negative comments as they do not serve us well in achieving our ultimate objection, winning the White House.

I am more interested in asking questions about Senator Obama as he is still in the best position to win the nomination. So, here we go:

Why can't Senator Obama win in these important states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania?

Why can't Senator Obama win in states even when he benefited from the backing of the states institutions and electoral machines and money advantage (electoral machines and state institutions refer to MA)?

Why can't Senator Obama connect with white voters earning less than 50K?

More importantly, why are some demographic groups, whose support is crucial for any victory in the fall, still impermeable to the Senator's message?

What can Senator Obama do to redress this lacuna and weakness? And how can he do it?

Is it time for Senator Obama to generate a new message or narrative on top of his hope/change message because this latter does not seem to connect with some DG?

If Senator Obama is our nominee, isn't it worrisome that he did not win the most important democratic states (CA, NY, NJ, MA) or the battle ground states (OH, PA) necessary for any democratic victory in the fall?

If Senator Obama is the front runner, why hasn't he delivered the final blow and put this campaign to rest already?

I believe that Senator Obama's message of hope/change is no longer effective with some key demographic groups. It seems to me that it got a little bit old and feels like deja vue and repetitive. I think he needs to add a second act to his performance, otherwise the change/hope message risks to become cliche.

I also believe the longer this campaign goes on without having one candidate delivering the final blow to the other, the more these two candidates become an integral part of the ticket. I just cannot see Senator Clinton not being on the ticket anymore without incurring serious consequences and i just cannot see Senator Obama not being on the ticket without generating serious consequences.

Let us talk about these questions and answer them in a spirit that generates solutions not controversies. Everyone here has his/her favorite candidate, but we have to be able to talk about the shortcomings of each without being disagreeable.



Display:


Re: Questions that need to be asked? (none / 0)

I think the answer to most of your questions is that  Hillary Clinton IS a formidable candidate and has widespread support and appeal among millions of Americans. She is not easy to beat in any state, and especially in states which favors her in demographics.

This is why we aren't seeing Obama blowing Clinton out in each state. I don't see it as a rejection of Obama, but rather a demonstration of Clinton's strength even when faced with a near impossible path to the nomination.


by smoothmedia on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:24:40 AM EST

It means Hillary needs 69% of all remaining.... (none / 0)

... primaries.  Yes she will?  Probably not.


by dystopianfuturetoday on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 10:20:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Questions that need to be asked? (none / 0)

Its the toughest job in the world , you need to be ready for anything , especially now , with 2 wars , oil prices skyrocketing , an economy in crises .

Harry Truman said it best :

If you can't stand the heat get out of the kitchen , who do you think has what it takes ?

- Hillary Clinton.

That sums it up .


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:50:05 AM EST

Re: Questions that need to be asked? (none / 0)

In what way can Obama not stand the heat?  He counter punches extremely well, he's just reluctant to throw the first punch against Hillary (notice I said reluctant, not refusing).


by interestedbystander on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 06:14:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Questions that need to be asked? (none / 0)

Rudy Giuliani could sue Clinton for plagiarizing his   campaign ad.


by smoothmedia on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 06:55:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Questions that need to be asked? (none / 0)

Personally, it comes down to 2 things (my primaries still outstanding MT):

Trust: I feel Hillary will sell out any issue or value for electoral gain, and at this point I think this view is widespread and potentially fatal to her campaign

Iraq: I can't vote for someone who not only voted for the AUMF but was too lazy to even read the NIE, I'm sorry I can back her in November, but I've seen classmates come back maimed and I can't cast my ballot for the person who enabled their suffering purely for electoral gain.


by Socraticsilence on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 06:07:38 AM EST

Re: Questions that need to be asked? (none / 0)

I think the answer is he's saving his second act for the GE - I'm sure he's got an effective campaign strategy for that, he just has to keep plugging along to the end of this one first.  And that is all he needs to do - if he keeps going, he wins.


by interestedbystander on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 06:15:13 AM EST

Re: Questions that need to be asked? (none / 0)

If he attacks Hillary.. "OMG!! his politics are the same as everyone else's.."

If he doesn't "OMG!! he's too much of a wimp to handle what the repubs will throw at him"

The the Hillibots..
Damned if he does.. Damned if he dosen't


**Stop the Drama.. Vote Obama**
by Winterblink on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 07:05:02 AM EST

Re: Questions that need to be asked? (none / 0)

Another question we might ask is that if Obama really believes he could win Florida and Michigan in a fair primary fight, why those states aren't going ahead and having a full, fair, and open primaries.


Another Hillary Supporter for Obama-Biden '08!
by Beltway Dem on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 07:24:45 AM EST

Re: Questions that need to be asked? (none / 0)

I think Obama stood in front of the door to the state legislature with a shotgun and said "NO REVOTES!" Right? That's how he's responsible, and not Clinton and Obama both for throwing temper tantrums to get their "way" with MI/FL in a manner that suited them politically.


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 08:24:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

OK. If you're serious. I'll try. (none / 0)

Why can't Senator Obama win in these important states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania?

This is a very complicated question. Sen. Clinton has taken the low road in these contests and is appealing to low information voters with disinformation and negativity. While Sen. Obama has rightly sworn off mud slinging, for the most part, he can certainly do a better communication job to this demographic.

In addition, and this is inarguable, there is a considerable racist vote in both states, at least equal to Sen. Clinton's margin of victory. I was struck by analysis last night that said that 17% of white voters in PA said race was a factor. That number rose to 20% outside of Philadelphia. Of those 75% went to Clinton. Imagine that for a second. 3/4 of admitted white racists supported Sen. Clinton, and that was 1 in 5 white voters. This is something Sen. Obama struggles with as expected, and I'm not sure what he does about it.

Why can't Senator Obama win in states even when he benefited from the backing of the states institutions and electoral machines and money advantage (electoral machines and state institutions refer to MA)?

It's been a long time since Sen. Obama had any institutional advantages. All of those pretty much go to Sen. Clinton. She is and always has been the candidate of the establishment in the Democratic party. She has the advantage of a former President running around campaigning for her and the ability to cash in on two decades of political favors. Any institutional advantage favors Sen. Clinton.

Why can't Senator Obama connect with white voters earning less than 50K?

I think the better question is why can't he connect adequately with white low information voters. I think this is an area he has to work on. Sen. Clinton is expert at taking very complex issues and making them sound overly simple, even if that means misleading the voter. Sen. Obama has a more thoughtful and honest approach that doesn't boil down as well. Still he needs to find a solution here.

More importantly, why are some demographic groups, whose support is crucial for any victory in the fall, still impermeable to the Senator's message?

They're not. This is a laugh. The two candidates split them. Asking why the older white female vote is impermeable is like asking why Hillary isn't getting black voter. The largest percentage of Hillary's base votes for her because she's a woman, and that's a fact of life we have to deal with in the primary. Hopefully, once Obama is officially the nominee all of these groups will once again coalesce as Democrats.

What can Senator Obama do to redress this lacuna and weakness? And how can he do it?

Well, there are several roads. Sen. Obama is hampered by his desire to run a positive campaign. While I think there is enough information around to incinerate Sen. Clinton, he won't do it, so his best bet is to just improve communication. I think there are a lot of ways he can do that, but I don't think I'll be telling you! ;-)

Is it time for Senator Obama to generate a new message or narrative on top of his hope/change message because this latter does not seem to connect with some DG?

The hope/change message isn't a "narrative". I can understand why some people, used to candidates who change their stripes based upon the latest polls, have trouble with this. This is what he's going to do when President, and it is the basis of who he is. It isn't going to change, and moreover, this is a change election. Without owning the "change" mantle, say hello to President McCain.

If Senator Obama is our nominee, isn't it worrisome that he did not win the most important democratic states (CA, NY, NJ, MA) or the battle ground states (OH, PA) necessary for any democratic victory in the fall?

No. Because there is absolutely no chance that whichever candidate is the nominee they won't carry CA, NY, NJ, and MA. As for OH and PA, I have every faith that once Democrats come together, together with Independents and Republicans, that we can win those states. Keep in mind we're presently splitting the vote.

If Senator Obama is the front runner, why hasn't he delivered the final blow and put this campaign to rest already?

Why hasn't Sen. Clinton. She has every institutional advantage. She started the race with more money. Still she now would need to win over 70% of the remaining delegates to win, and she can't reasonably win the popular vote unless FL and MI are counted pretty much as is, which, of course, isn't ever going to happen. Sen. Obama is playing this out. Winning 2/3 of all contests and coming closer than expected in states where Sen. Clinton was always expected to win. If we need to play this out to June then I guess that's what we'll do, but in the end Sen. Obama will be our nominee.


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 08:25:35 AM EST

Re: OK. If you're serious. I'll try. (none / 0)

Travis, I don't have time to read your comment entirely, but i just want to say that people who say they will not vote for Obama because he is black are matched by those who say they will not vote for Clinton because she is a woman.

So, i think it is a bit lazy intellectually to blame it on racist or sexism. Moreover, Obama won in states that had only 2 or 3% of blacks such as Wyoming and Iowa. So, if racism was a serious factor, it won't be located or concentrated in one state, but it will be nationally.

I reply to your post in more detail later.


by likelihood zero on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 11:35:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OK. If you're serious. I'll try. (none / 0)

Wrong. Some states/regions of states are more racist than others. It's why Hillary has Kentucky. There is no arguing with the stats on racism in PA. Around 20% of white voters said race was a factor and 75% or those voted for Hillary.


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 12:10:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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